Trading the economic number: real move, over in one minute

Source: News trading, widespread

The direction is real. It's all over in minute one.

Entering five minutes later passed 0 of 54 setups after costs.

This verdict is about the strategy as published, not about the person who shared it.

The claim

Here’s what the strategy promises, in its own terms.

When CPI or NFP surprises, trade in the direction of the surprise.

How we tested it

Same six checks as everything else here: random entries, coin flips, a look-ahead audit, unseen years, double costs and a luck check. How we test →

What we found

1,468 releases from 2019 to 2026 scored against the consensus. The first five minutes do go the textbook way (USDJPY 78%, EURUSD 69%, gold 69%, BTC 64%) and stocks follow the rates story only on CPI (91%). But the whole move happens in minute one. Entering five minutes after, following or fading the first move, passed 0 of 54 cells after news-widened costs. One lead survived: being long Nasdaq into the Fed decision, about +40 basis points per meeting, overnight and not something a prop firm allows.

The numbers

The headline numbers from our test.

Releases	1,468
Direction hit USD/JPY	78%
Direction hit EUR/USD	69%
Tradeable cells passed	0 of 54
Pre FOMC drift	40 bps

• Profit factor: money won divided by money lost. Below 1.0 loses money. Around 1.0 is break-even.
• R-multiple: profit or loss measured in units of the amount risked per trade. +1R means you made what you risked.
• vs random: how the strategy did against the same trades with random entries.