KDJ on Nasdaq: profitable, mostly because Nasdaq went up

Source: Common TradingView indicator strategy

Random long entries get ~1.2 on their own. Much of the profit is just Nasdaq going up.

Not dead, not proven.

This verdict is about the strategy as published, not about the person who shared it.

The claim

Here’s what the strategy promises, in its own terms.

Buy Nasdaq when the KDJ J-line turns up, sell when it rolls over.

How we tested it

Same six checks as everything else here: random entries, coin flips, a look-ahead audit, unseen years, double costs and a luck check. How we test →

What we found

Profit factor 1.66, 1.83 and 1.72 across 2024-2026, and a next-open fill does not hurt it. But random long entries with the same holding times score about 1.2 on their own, and KDJ beat those random longs in only 73%, 86% and 86% of 300 runs, below the 95% bar. It has no stop, so the losses hide as open drawdown. Not dead, not proven.

The numbers

The headline numbers from our test.

PF by year	1.66 / 1.83 / 1.72
Random long PF	~1.2
Beats random longs	73 / 86 / 86 (bar 95)
Stop	none in the original

• Profit factor: money won divided by money lost. Below 1.0 loses money. Around 1.0 is break-even.
• R-multiple: profit or loss measured in units of the amount risked per trade. +1R means you made what you risked.
• vs random: how the strategy did against the same trades with random entries.